Science et changements planétaires / Sécheresse
MENUAdaptation of Sahelian agriculture to climate change: A stochastic modeling approach Volume 24, issue 1, Janvier-Février-Mars 2013
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- Key words: agriculture, Burkina Faso, climate change, climate information, drought, risk, Sahel
- DOI : 10.1684/sec.2013.0371
- Page(s) : 57-63
- Published in: 2013
The purpose of this paper is to study the response of Sahelian farmers faced with the increasingly frequent droughts envisaged by the IPCC, to assess their losses and, finally, to consider how to address, at least partially, the negative effects. Using a stochastic model, we have shown that the impact of increased frequency of bad years of production is very expensive for Sahelian farmers. When the risk of bad years is multiplied by 3.5, the farmer sees his wealth drop by 34% from its initial level, despite a reorganization of crop systems to hopefully make them more resistant to drought. We show that farmers are willing to pay 21% of their wealth (44,862 CFA francs per year) to avoid all forms of risk in the performance of their agricultural activities. They are willing to finance technology such as irrigation to ensure a certain level of income. We then show that information on the risk of bad years, given to farmers early enough, can significantly limit their loss of wealth and reduction in food supplies.