ARTICLE
Auteur(s) : Peter Hensen1,
Marcel L Müller2, Ramin
Haschemi1, Hartmut Ständer3, Thomas A
Luger1, Cord
Sunderkötter1, Meinhard Schiller1
1Department of Dermatology, University
of Münster, Von-Esmarch-Str. 58, D-48149 Münster, Germany
2Department of Dermatology, University
of Freiburg, D-79104 Freiburg, Germany
3Dermatology Bad Bentheim, Paulinenkrankenhaus, Bad
Bentheim, Germany
accepté le 12 Mars 2009
Skin cancer has become an important public health problem among
Caucasians with a steadily increasing incidence in recent decades
[1-3]. The majority of these are non-melanoma skin cancers, i.e.
basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). While
the incidence rates of invasive non-melanoma skin cancers are
already alarming, i.e. 20-30 SCC and100 BCC new cases/100,000/year
respectively, in central Europe [4], the number of carcinomas in
situ of SCC, also referred to as actinic keratosis (AK), is
excessively high (approximately 250 new cases/100,000/year) [5].
The prevalence of this entity in Europe is 15% in men and 6% in
woman [6]. Over the age of 70, as many as 34% of males and 18% of
females were found to have AK in Europe. The USA shows a prevalence
between 11-26% [7], while the highest prevalence has been reported
for Australia (Queensland) where 55% of men between 30-70 years
showed AK [8, 9]. The forecast for future non-melanoma skin cancer
incidence rates is dramatic [3, 10].
AK is an initial manifestation of a continuum of clinical and
histological abnormalities that progresses from AK to invasive SCC.
Approximately 10% of AK reveal such a progression to invasive SCC)
[11, 12]. The percentage is dramatically higher in patients under
immunosuppression [13], usually patients who have received organ
transplantation. The term keratinocytic intraepidermal neoplasia
has been suggested to replace the term actinic keratosis to make it
clear that AK is a genuine neoplasm (carcinoma in situ) which has a
potential to break beyond its epidermal confinement into the
dermis, [14, 15].
AK are most commonly found on chronically sun-exposed regions of
the skin. They present as skin colored to reddish brown or
yellowish black thin or raised papules or plaques with discrete
keratosis (appearing like dry adherent scale), sometimes also with
marked or even horn-like keratosis [16]. The diagnosis of AK can
usually be made clinically by experienced dermatologists.
Histological confirmations revealed a positive predictive value
range from 74% up to 94% [17-19]. AK in children are limited to
rare genetic disorders such as albinism and xeroderma pigmentosum
[20]. The prevalence of AK increases highly with advancing age
[21-23]. Furthermore, the prevalence of AK was found to be
significantly higher in men than in women [24], which corresponds
with findings on the prevalence or incidence of other non-melanoma
skin cancers in Europe [25, 26]. High levels of UV exposure have
been closely associated with the appearance of AK in at least some
studies, and prevalence has been strongly related to individual
skin sensitivity and objective signs of sun exposure such as solar
elastosis and solar lentigines in some studies [6, 8, 27].
Available data on the epidemiology of AK and possible predisposing
factors refer commonly to populations in Australia or the United
States, as the majority of the studies have been conducted in these
countries. By contrast, available epidemiologic data on AK for
Central Europe are sometimes controversial and limited [24, 28].
This is remarkable because these areas are densely populated so
that data on risk factors will have a high socioeconomic impact.
The results might vary from the studies in Australia or the US
because sun hours and thus sun exposure is lower in this geographic
area. The aim of this study was therefore to assess, as well as to
compare, clinical, demographic and behavioral factors of patients
with and without AK from a prototypical fair skinned Central
European population, and to detect possible factors that are
predisposing for the appearance of AK in this area.
Methods
Study design
In this case-control study men and women of all social strata were
included. Cases and controls were recruited consecutively over a
time period of nine months, i.e. from August 1, 2005 through April
30, 2006. As AK is a disease of advanced age, sampling was
restricted to cases and controls with an age of 40 years and above.
Exclusion criteria were the presence of skin cancers. Cases and
controls were recruited from the department of dermatology at the
University of Münster and from five dermatological outpatient
centers in Westphalia and Lower-Saxony, topographically located
within distincts surrounding districts named Coesfeld, Borken,
Steinfurt, Grafschaft Bentheim and Emsland. Each outpatient center
could be considered as representative for the related district.
This multicentric approach, encompassing a clinical center and
several private practices, was chosen to avoid selection bias that
may arise when using single care-sector-related data.
Cases and controls were recruited as follows: At the
participating outpatient centers, both cases and controls were
continuously recruited over the investigation period. Cases were
selected on the basis of clinical diagnosis of AK, because clinical
recognition of AK by experienced specialists has been demonstrated
to have a high positive predictive value for diagnostic accuracy
[17-19]. Data on inter-observer variability were not collected. To
recruit control subjects we randomly selected patients admitted to
the outpatient center with conditions not suspected of being
related to neoplastic diseases. Controls were included in this
study only if full clinical examination by trained dermatologists
revealed no sign of an AK or of any other suspicious lesions
related to skin cancer. Questionnaires were handed out to the
control subjects selected with a short declaration of the purpose
of the study. In the dermatological department, cases were selected
if a diagnosis of AK was made clinically in affected inpatients or
outpatients and if the diagnosis could be histologically confirmed.
Names and addresses were retrieved from the patient data management
system and questionnaires were sent out. Control subjects were
recruited in the same manner in the outpatient centers. The
questionnaire developed for this study contained 23 items which had
been suggested according to results from previous research and they
were validated in internal audits among oncology specialists. To
increase feasibility and response-rates, the questionnaire size was
limited to two pages and the number of items was restricted to a
reasonable quantity. Each item was carefully worded in a clear and
precise manner. Accurate item understanding was tested on a
pre-test with elderly people. Items concerned demographic data
(e.g. age and sex), personal characteristics (e.g. skin phototype
and color of hair), relevant personal habits (e.g. use of sunscreen
or smoking), history of dermatological disorders and chronic
diseases (e.g. psoriasis and warts), personal and family history of
skin malignancies, transplantations undergone, history of sun
exposure for recreational and occupational reasons, history of
sunburn in youth and adulthood, and, except for controls, the
number and location of presenting AK lesions. Arsenic therapy,
organ transplantation, skin warts, vitiligo, and psoriasis were
included because they are discussed as possible risk factors for AK
[20, 20, 29-32]. Data regarding socioeconomic status or a family
history of skin cancer were not collected. The questionnaires were
either sent by regular mail or were handed out directly by
attending physicians. The whole study was performed anonymously.
Therefore, reminding of non-respondents could not be undertaken.
Furthermore, no incentives for completion were provided, but to
avoid any additional expenses, respondents were provided with an
accompanying stamped and pre-addressed envelope.
Data analysis
Statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS, release 14.0 (SPSS
Inc., San Diego, CA). The alternative hypothesis was accepted at a
statistical significance level of P < 0.05 on all applied
statistical tests. Descriptive statistics were performed to obtain
frequencies and distribution of the variables in the study groups.
The Chi-square test (two-tailed) was used in bivariate analysis to
compare proportions of the case group presenting AK with the group
of control subjects. All analyses were based on the number of
affected patients and not on the number of lesions. To assess which
factors might be associated with the appearance of AK, crude odds
ratios (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI)
were calculated as preliminary estimates of relative risk [33].
Afterwards, a multivariate analysis using conditional logistic
regression (entry model) and the forward stepwise likelihood ratio
method (entry P < 0.05, removal P > 0.10) was performed
to control for potentially confounding variables leading to
adjusted ORs. Variables were entered into logistic regression
models if statistical significance was found in the foregoing
chi-square test or were being suggested by clinical considerations.
Covariates were summed up and recoded as follows: color of hair:
fair (red or blond), dark (brown or black); color of eyes: light
(blue or grey), dark (green or brown); phototype: pale (type I or
II), dark (type III or IV); freckles: few (none or few), many;
alcohol consumption: non-drinkers (never or seldom), drinkers
(regular or frequent); smoking habits: non-smokers (< 5 years),
smokers (5 years or above); sun exposure for occupational or
recreational reasons: exposed (frequent or very frequent);
non-exposed (never or seldom); painful sunburns: exposed (sometimes
or frequent); non-exposed (never or seldom); use of sunscreen: no
(never or seldom); yes (frequent or always); personal history of
skin cancer: yes (melanoma or non-melanoma skin cancer), no; family
history of skin cancer: yes (parents, siblings or children), no.
Age was recoded at the age where the probability of the appearance
of AK is greater than 0.5: up to 66 years, 67 years and older.
Results
Demographic data
The study population comprised 331 cases and 383 controls. Two
hundred and twenty three (67.8%) of the cases and 145 (38.0%) of
the controls were male, whereas 106 (32.2%) of the cases and 237
(62.0%) of the controls were female. Mean age at diagnosis of AK
was 71.3 years (± 8.9) and median age was 71 years (range
42-94). Date of birth was missing for five cases. The mean age of
the control subjects was 58.8 years (± 11.4) and median age was 57
years (range 40-86). Age categories are shown in table 2. There were fewer females in the case group
(n = 106) than in the control group (n = 237) with a significant
difference (P < 0.0001). Within the case group, one third of the
subjects with AK were female (32.2%), but otherwise, female
individuals represented 62.0% of the control group.
Table 2 Comparison of subjects with AK and controls for
all examined variables
|
Cases (n = 331)
|
Controls (n = 383)
|
|
|
Variable
|
No.
|
(%)
|
No.
|
(%)
|
P-valuea
|
|
Age
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
not available
|
5
|
(1.5)
|
0
|
(0.0)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
40-49
|
7
|
(2.1)
|
102
|
(26.6)
|
|
|
50-59
|
20
|
(6.0)
|
103
|
(26.9)
|
|
|
60-69
|
116
|
(35.0)
|
98
|
(25.6)
|
|
|
70-79
|
118
|
(35.6)
|
73
|
(19.1)
|
|
|
80-89
|
63
|
(19.0)
|
7
|
(1.8)
|
|
|
90-99
|
2
|
(0.6)
|
0
|
(0.0)
|
|
|
Sex
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Female
|
106
|
(32.2)
|
237
|
(62.0)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
Male
|
223
|
(67.8)
|
145
|
(38.0)
|
|
|
Ethnic origin
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
German
|
321
|
(97.3)
|
362
|
(94.5)
|
0.003
|
|
Other
|
4
|
(1.2)
|
20
|
(5.2)
|
|
|
Habitation (more than 80% of lifetime)
|
|
|
|
|
In Germany
|
325
|
(98.5)
|
365
|
(95.3)
|
0.056
|
|
Elsewhere
|
4
|
(1.2)
|
15
|
(3.9)
|
|
|
Color of hair
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blond
|
204
|
(61.8)
|
171
|
(44.6)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
Red
|
18
|
(5.5)
|
4
|
(1.0)
|
|
|
Brown
|
79
|
(23.9)
|
165
|
(43.1)
|
|
|
Black
|
26
|
(7.9)
|
40
|
(10.4)
|
|
|
Color of eyes
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blue
|
158
|
(47.9)
|
151
|
(39.4)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
Grey
|
90
|
(27.3)
|
79
|
(20.6)
|
|
|
Green
|
23
|
(7.0)
|
61
|
(15.9)
|
|
|
Brown
|
53
|
(16.1)
|
85
|
(22.2)
|
|
|
Skin phototype
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I
|
12
|
(3.7)
|
4
|
(1.1)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
II
|
210
|
(65.0)
|
161
|
(42.5)
|
|
|
III
|
96
|
(29.7)
|
191
|
(50.4)
|
|
|
IV
|
5
|
(1.5)
|
23
|
(6.1)
|
|
|
Freckles
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
None
|
168
|
(53.0)
|
214
|
(58.0)
|
0.075
|
|
Few
|
110
|
(34.7)
|
128
|
(34.7)
|
|
|
Many
|
39
|
(12.3)
|
27
|
(7.3)
|
|
|
Alcohol consumption
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Never
|
57
|
(17.3)
|
45
|
(11.7)
|
0.126
|
|
Seldom
|
225
|
(68.2)
|
284
|
(74.2)
|
|
|
Regularly, but little
|
45
|
(13.6)
|
52
|
(13.6)
|
|
|
Frequent or much
|
1
|
(0.3)
|
2
|
(0.5)
|
|
|
Smoking habits
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Never
|
169
|
(51.1)
|
165
|
(43.1)
|
0.189
|
|
<5 years
|
32
|
(9.7)
|
40
|
(10.4)
|
|
|
5-20 years
|
70
|
(21.1)
|
85
|
(22.2)
|
|
|
>20 years
|
56
|
(16.9)
|
89
|
(23.2)
|
|
|
Undergone transplantation
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes
|
9
|
(2.7)
|
3
|
(0.8)
|
0.040
|
|
No
|
319
|
(96.7)
|
380
|
(99.2)
|
|
|
Psoriasis
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No
|
260
|
(78.5)
|
301
|
(78.6)
|
0.043
|
|
Minor type
|
33
|
(10.0))
|
38
|
(9.9)
|
|
|
Severe type
|
3
|
(0.9)
|
15
|
(3.9)
|
|
|
Vitiligo
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes
|
11
|
(3.3)
|
10
|
(2.6)
|
0.001
|
|
No
|
176
|
(53.2)
|
255
|
(66.6)
|
|
|
Warts
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
None
|
142
|
(42.9)
|
175
|
(45.7)
|
0.859
|
|
Hand and foot
|
115
|
(34.7)
|
123
|
(32.1)
|
|
|
Plane warts
|
52
|
(15.7)
|
60
|
(15.7)
|
|
|
Anogenital warts
|
4
|
(1.2)
|
7
|
(1.8)
|
|
|
History of arsenic treatment
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yes
|
7
|
(2.1)
|
5
|
(1.3)
|
0.003
|
|
No
|
175
|
(52.9)
|
254
|
(66.3)
|
|
|
Sun exposure for occupational reasons
|
|
|
|
|
Never
|
119
|
(36.0)
|
149
|
(38.9)
|
0.001
|
|
Seldom
|
79
|
(23.9)
|
133
|
(34.7)
|
|
|
Frequent
|
85
|
(25.7)
|
67
|
(17.5)
|
|
|
Very frequent
|
35
|
(10.6)
|
20
|
(5.2)
|
|
|
Sun exposure for recreational reasons
|
|
|
|
|
Never
|
25
|
(7.6)
|
29
|
(7.6)
|
0.057
|
|
Seldom
|
122
|
(36.9)
|
142
|
(37.1)
|
|
|
Frequent
|
129
|
(39.0)
|
175
|
(45.7)
|
|
|
Very frequent
|
44
|
(13.3)
|
32
|
(8.4)
|
|
|
Painful sunburn episodes before the age of 20 years
|
|
|
|
Never
|
64
|
(19.4)
|
97
|
(25.3)
|
0.006
|
|
Seldom
|
189
|
(57.3)
|
236
|
(61.6)
|
|
|
Sometimes
|
58
|
(17.6)
|
41
|
(10.7)
|
|
|
Frequent
|
7
|
(2.1)
|
3
|
(0.8)
|
|
|
Painful sunburn episodes after the age of 20 years
|
|
|
|
Never
|
64
|
(19.4)
|
92
|
(24.0)
|
0.090
|
|
Seldom
|
202
|
(61.2)
|
240
|
(62.7)
|
|
|
Sometimes
|
58
|
(17.6)
|
42
|
(11.0)
|
|
|
Frequent
|
1
|
(0.3)
|
3
|
(0.8)
|
|
|
Use of sunscreen
|
|
|
|
|
Never
|
91
|
(27.5)
|
76
|
(19.9)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
Seldom
|
151
|
(45.6)
|
143
|
(37.4)
|
|
|
Frequent
|
62
|
(18.7)
|
106
|
(27.7)
|
|
|
Always
|
20
|
(6.0)
|
51
|
(13.4)
|
|
|
Personal history of skin malignancies
|
|
|
|
|
None
|
215
|
(67.8)
|
354
|
(93.7)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
Melanoma
|
24
|
(7.6)
|
9
|
(2.4)
|
|
|
Other skin cancer
|
78
|
(24.6)
|
15
|
(4.0)
|
|
|
Family history of skin malignancies
|
|
|
|
|
None
|
283
|
(85.5)
|
352
|
(91.9)
|
0.031
|
|
Parents
|
28
|
(8.5)
|
17
|
(4.4)
|
|
|
Sibling
|
10
|
(3.0)
|
9
|
(2.3)
|
|
|
Children
|
4
|
(1.2)
|
0
|
(0.0)
|
|
aChi-square, two-tailed test of significance.
Clinical data
Distribution of AK according to anatomical site and number of
lesions was assessed from each affected subject (table 1). AK were predominately located on the
face and head. 285 (86.1%) of the cases reported having one or more
AK on this site with significant differences between both genders
(male n = 200 (60.4%); female n = 84 (25.4%); 1 missing value for
sex; chi-square test: P < 0.0001). AK located on the upper limbs
were reported in n = 48 (14.5%) case subjects. Fewer than 8% of all
subjects with AK had lesions located on the trunk, neck or lower
limbs.
Table 1 Distribution of AK according to anatomical site
and number of lesions
|
Anatomical site
|
|
|
|
Face/head
|
Upper limb
|
Trunk/neck
|
Lower limb
|
No.
|
(%)
|
|
+
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
238
|
(71.9)
|
|
+
|
+
|
–
|
–
|
18
|
(5.4)
|
|
+
|
–
|
+
|
–
|
11
|
(3.3)
|
|
+
|
–
|
–
|
+
|
6
|
(1.8)
|
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
–
|
6
|
(1.8)
|
|
+
|
+
|
–
|
+
|
2
|
(0.6)
|
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
4
|
(1.2)
|
|
–
|
+
|
–
|
–
|
10
|
(3.0)
|
|
–
|
–
|
+
|
–
|
3
|
(0.9)
|
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
+
|
5
|
(1.5)
|
|
–
|
+
|
–
|
+
|
6
|
(1.8)
|
|
–
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
2
|
(0.6)
|
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
20
|
(6.0)
|
Data from bivariate analysis
Table 2 shows the descriptive study
groups and the statistical results of bivariate analysis. There
were significant differences observed between the two sample groups
in age, sex, ethnic origin, color of hair and eyes, skin phototype,
transplantation history, psoriasis, vitiligo, arsenic treatment,
sun exposure for occupational reasons, painful sunburns before the
age of 20 years, use of sunscreen, and personal and family history
of skin cancer (P < 0.5).
Data from multivariate analysis
The high number of patients recruited with complete questionnaires
in our study allowed the performance of multivariate analysis which
is important for assessing the degree by which individual
independent factors or their combination increase the probability
for skin cancer. This is relevant as patients usually present with
a combination of predisposing factors. Crude ORs and corresponding
95% CIs for recoded variables are shown in table
3. To control for confounding variables, adjusted ORs and
corresponding 95% CIs were computed, using a logistic regression
entry model (table 3). In this entry
model, strong constitutional or predisposing factors (ORs > 2.0)
were found for male gender (OR 3.95), pale phototype (OR 2.15),
many freckles (OR 2.10), and personal history of skin malignancies
(OR 4.79). Independent risk factors in addition were, colour of
hair (OR 1.61), sun exposure for occupational reasons (OR 1.57),
non-use of sunscreen (OR 1.81), familial history of skin
malignancies (OR 1.85), painful sunburn episodes before (OR 1.21)
or after (OR 1.38) the age of 20 years, and sun exposure for
recreational reasons (OR 1.22), albeit with a lower OR.
Table 3 Crude odds ratios and adjusted odds ratios for
recorded variables
|
Crude odds ratios
|
Adjusted odds ratiosa
|
|
Variable
|
No. of cases
|
No. of controls
|
OR
|
(95% CI)
|
OR
|
(95% CI)
|
|
Age
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
≤ 66 years
|
98
|
274
|
5.85
|
(4.23, 8.09)
|
1.11b
|
(1.08, 1.14)
|
|
> 66 years
|
228
|
109
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sex
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male
|
223
|
145
|
3.44
|
(2.52, 4.69)
|
3.95
|
(2.37, 6.58)
|
|
Female
|
106
|
237
|
|
|
|
|
|
Color of hair
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fair
|
222
|
175
|
2.48
|
(1.82, 3.37)
|
1.61
|
(0.93, 2.79)
|
|
Dark
|
105
|
205
|
|
|
|
|
|
Color of eyes
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Light
|
248
|
230
|
2.07
|
(1.49, 2.88)
|
1.11
|
(0.62, 1.98)
|
|
Dark
|
76
|
146
|
|
|
|
|
|
Skin phototype
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pale
|
222
|
165
|
2.85
|
(2.09, 3.89)
|
2.15
|
(1.23, 3.75)
|
|
Dark
|
101
|
214
|
|
|
|
|
|
Freckles
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Many
|
39
|
27
|
1.78
|
(1.06, 2.98)
|
2.10
|
(0.85, 5.22)
|
|
Few
|
278
|
342
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alcohol consumption
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-drinkers
|
282
|
329
|
1.01
|
(0.66, 1.54)
|
1.03
|
(0.48, 2.21)
|
|
Drinkers
|
46
|
54
|
|
|
|
|
|
Smoking habits
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-smokers
|
169
|
165
|
1.26
|
(0.90, 1.76)
|
1.02
|
(0.60, 1.74)
|
|
Smokers
|
102
|
125
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sun exposure for occupational reasons
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exposed
|
120
|
87
|
1.96
|
(1.41, 2.73)
|
1.57
|
(0.90, 2.73)
|
|
Non-exposed
|
198
|
282
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sun exposure for recreational reasons
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exposed
|
173
|
207
|
0.97
|
(0.72, 1.31)
|
1.22
|
(0.71, 2.10)
|
|
Non-exposed
|
147
|
171
|
|
|
|
|
|
Painful sunburn episodes before the age of 20 years
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exposed
|
65
|
44
|
1.94
|
(1.28, 2.95)
|
1.21
|
(0.53, 2.80)
|
|
Non-exposed
|
253
|
333
|
|
|
|
|
|
Painful sunburn episodes after the age of 20 years
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exposed
|
59
|
45
|
1.64
|
(1.08, 2.49)
|
1.38
|
(0.60, 3.18)
|
|
Non-exposed
|
266
|
332
|
|
|
|
|
|
Use of sunscreen
|
|
|
|
|
|
No
|
242
|
219
|
2.12
|
(1.53, 2.92)
|
1.81
|
(1.04, 3.16)
|
|
Yes
|
82
|
157
|
|
|
|
|
|
Personal history of skin malignancies
|
|
|
|
|
|
Skin cancer
|
102
|
24
|
7.00
|
(4.35, 11.26)
|
4.79
|
(2.29, 10.04)
|
|
No
|
215
|
354
|
|
|
|
|
|
Family history of skin malignancies
|
|
|
|
|
|
Skin cancer
|
38
|
26
|
1.82
|
(1.08, 3.07)
|
1.85
|
(0.76, 4.53)
|
|
No
|
283
|
352
|
|
|
|
|
aMultiple logistic regression estimates (247 cases and
215 controls). The adjusted model included all variables listed in
the table.
bAdjusted Odds Ratio has been calculated using raw
age.
Risk pattern
All variables with significant results in the entry analysis were
included in the subsequently performed stepwise analysis. Analysis
of these risk factors by stepwise analysis suggested a summarizing
model of key predictor variables for AK (table
4). As a consequence the highest risk for the appearance of
AK would be expected in individuals showing the following risk
pattern: male (OR 3.92; 95% CI 2.42-6.36), history of skin
malignancies (OR 6.47; 95% CI 3.21-13.03), pale skin phototype (OR
2.5; 95% CI 1.53-4.06), and sun exposure for occupational reasons
(OR 1.72; 95% CI 1.01-2.92).
Table 4 Forward stepwise (likelihood ratio)
multivariate logistic analysisa
|
Entry step
|
Predictive variable
|
Beta
|
OR
|
(95% CI)
|
P-Value
|
|
1
|
Age
|
0.104
|
1.11
|
(1.08, 1.14)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
2
|
Sex
|
1.367
|
3.92
|
(2.42, 6.36)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
3
|
Personal history of skin malignancies
|
1.867
|
6.47
|
(3.21, 13.03)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
4
|
Skin phototype
|
0.914
|
2.50
|
(1.53, 4.06)
|
< 0.0001
|
|
5
|
Sun exposure for occupational reasons
|
0.541
|
1.72
|
(1.01, 2.92)
|
0.045
|
aEach model was tested for good fit by -2 log likelihood
and chi-square in each step. P-value of variables in the equation
in the last step of analysis is provided (247 cases and 215
controls). Variables not in the final equation: colour of eyes and
hair, freckles, smoking, alcohol consumption, sun exposure for
recreational reasons, painful sunburns before and after the age of
twenty, use of sunscreen, family history of skin malignancies.
Probability curves
In order to illustrate how much predictive variables such as a
history of skin malignancies and skin phototype increase the
probability of developing AK over time, best fit sigmoidal
probability curves were generated using the logistic regression
equation. The estimated probability from the logistic regression
model is depicted in figure 1. The curves
illustrate an increasing probability of developing AK that occurs
over the years dependent on gender and by adding on the predictive
variables’ history of skin malignancies and skin phototype. The
50th percentile of risk probability is indicated, i.e. male
patients with the history of skin malignancies and skintype I/II
have already at the age of 41 a 50% probability of developing AK,
while women without these predisposing factors will reach the 50th
percentile of risk probability as late as at the age of 81.
Discussion
The aim of this multicenter case-control study was to identify
clinical, demographic, and behavioural risk factors that are
associated with the appearance of AK from a prototypical
sun-sensitive Central European population. We established a
summarized risk pattern for this area, i.e. age, male gender,
history of skin malignancies, pale skin phototype, and increased
sun exposure for occupational reasons are crucial for the
probability of developing an AK in Central Europe (table 4). Further independent predisposing factors
in the adjusted multiple logistic regression analysis were familial
history of skin malignancies, non-use of sunscreen, painful sunburn
episodes before or after the age of 20 years, and sun exposure for
recreational reasons (table 3).
This study thus encompasses a comprehensive multivariate
analysis probably of most, if not all the possible risk factors for
AK in central Europe. Previous studies had already analyzed a
variety of aspects of these risk factors, which were exploited by,
but also complemented by this study. Some of these studies had
looked at populations living under quite different climatic
conditions. For example, sun hours and thus sun exposure differs
significantly in Australia or the US compared to central Europe and
thus might have a different capacity to initiate AK growth.
The role of chronic UV radiation in non-melanoma skin cancer,
i.e. BCC and SCC, is well defined [34-37]. However, whether these
findings are applicable to the concept of AK has been less
thoroughly examined. A first clue comes from the fact that the
distribution of AK closely correlates with the body sites of most
intense chronic ultraviolet light exposure. Correspondingly, we
found that AK are predominately located on the face and head
region, i.e. 86.1% of the cases reported having AK on this site
(table 1). Nevertheless, a possible
selection bias could be involved, as the high prevalence rate on
the face and head- body areas which benefit from a daily
self-inspection – might be overestimated. So far, results
concerning the contribution of occupational vs. recreational sun
exposure are not consistent. A recent study investigating
associated factors of AK in a representative Italian sample
undoubtedly verified that the prevalence of AK increased with the
number of hours spent in the sun during the week and on holiday
[24]. Similarly, a case control study from the Netherlands reported
that the cumulative sun exposure correlated with an increased risk
of actinic keratosis [28]. These two European studies, however, did
not differentiate between occupational and recreational sun
exposure [24, 28].
In our study, sun exposure for occupational reasons was
especially found to be part of a risk profile for a north-western
German population. However, as excessive lifetime sun exposure
rates are generally only experienced by outdoor workers [38, 39],
it is not surprising that several studies from Australia and the US
demonstrated high incidence rates for AK in people with such
professions [8, 39, 40]. Working outdoors was also found in Japan
to be a risk factor for precancerous lesions, including AK [41].
However, Memon et al. could only detect a slightly higher,
non-significant prevalence of AK in subjects who had worked
outdoors at four centers in the northwest of England (Mersey
region) [6]. Thus, there is a discrepancy in the data of other
studies on the contribution of occupational sun exposure; since
Memon et al. did not perform multivariate analysis [6] confounding
factors such as a high portion of subjects with a Celtic phenotype
within the study population could have influenced the outcome of
the analysis. As men are more prone to have outdoor occupations, it
is not surprisingly that men are more likely than women to develop
AK in our study, in accordance with the literature [6, 8, 28, 41,
42]. This fact may serve as further evidence that work-related sun
exposure is a crucial AK risk factor.
Furthermore, we identified by multivariate analysis that
insufficient use or denial of use of sunscreens is a weak but
independent variable predicting the risk of AK. At first sight,
this positive association appeared predictable. However, two
previous studies did not find such a correlation [8, 24]. Frost et
al. reported that in adults older than 20 years sun protection
practices were even positively associated with the occurrence of AK
[8, 9]. This was explained by the presence of residual confounding
factors such as skin phenotype and prolonged sun exposure, most
likely due to a false feeling of security [8, 9]. Two other
prospective studies – one from Australia [18] and one from Japan
[42] – were in line with our findings as they revealed that regular
use of sunscreen with a sun protection factor of 17 would indeed
prevent the development of AK [18], and sunscreen use with age
(> 60 years) decreased new cases of AK among the Japanese [42].
Our study confirmed that the recall of painful sunburns before the
age of 20 y is associated with an increased risk of AK [8, 9, 28],
as has been demonstrated for SCC, BCC and melanoma [43, 44]. These
early sunburns may be considered to be initiating events in the
multistep process of developing skin cancer [45]. Acute and chronic
sun ultraviolet radiation of the skin lead to mutations in the p53
gene and subsequently to clonal expansion of mutated keratinocytes,
which is manifested clinically as the development of actinic
keratosis [46]. Functional loss of th p53 tumour suppressor gene
together with mutations of RAS and certain chromosomal aberrations
could finally lead to squamous cell carcinoma. Therefore it is not
surprising that several studies showed significant associations
between a history of previous non-melanoma skin cancers and the
presence of AK [24, 28] and SCC [37]. We demonstrated for the first
time that a personal history of any skin malignancies is one of the
strongest independent factors determining the development of
actinic keratosis. Besides the individual lifetime sun exposure, a
personal history of skin malignancies might reflect genetic factors
that result in constitutional sensitivity to sunlight.
Consequently, we demonstrated in accordance with literature [6, 8,
28, 40, 41] that pale phototype, freckles, colour of hair and eyes
carried an increased risk ofdeveloping AK.
Case-control studies have some clear limitations. First, the
findings are based on a limited sample set based on self-reported
behavioural risk factors and personal characteristics. Second, the
control subjects were selected from an identical clinical setting.
Therefore it remains unclear whether the results of the study would
have been similar if controls had been recruited in a setting
outside the health care system. Third, transfer of results to other
populations always requires critical assessment and the results of
this study refer primarily to a Westphalian and Lower-Saxonian
population.
The summarized risk pattern established here for the probability
of developing an AK may serve skin cancer prevention programs as a
basis for the improvement of clinical strategies and behavioural
purposes. A special emphasis should made to increase the
knowledge base of susceptible individuals, including people with
blue eyes, fair hair and freckles, and immunocompromised patients
[36]. Reduction or prevention of exposure, in particular avoidance
of the sun, appears to be the paramount promising strategy to
reduce the risk of AK. However, avoidance of excessive sun exposure
may be especially difficult for outdoor workers. At least, they
should be advised to use sunscreen daily [47, 48]. Because painful
sunburns before the age of 20 are an additional risk factor for AK,
reducing sunlight exposure in childhood may considerably decrease
the incidence of AK and SCCs in later life. Furthermore, patients
presenting the proposed risk pattern have to be thoroughly and
regularly examined with regard to AK lesions. Despite the results
summarized in this study and the increased public awareness of
UV-induced health risks, recent studies have revealed that total
body screening examinations are still infrequently performed, even
among patients at increased risk because of excessive occupational
sun exposure [49]. Although AK were found to be predominantly
located on the face and head and, thus, appear to be readily
identifiable, full body inspections by an experienced dermatologist
are highly recommended. The threshold for a biopsy of suspected
lesions, especially in patients with a history of skin cancer,
should be low, to exclude early invasive SCC and BCC [19, 50]. We
thus need to focus on primary and secondary strategies for
prevention of skin cancer by the implementation of risk profiles
into health practice. This way it is feasible to reduce incidence
rates of skin cancer and to secure their early detection which in
turn allows for less traumatizing therapeutic procedures to cure
these early stages of skin cancer. Further research and deployment
programs at the health system level are needed to implement
prevention strategies much more into clinical practice and to
increase the awareness of early skin cancer and safe sun practices
among the Central European populations.
Acknowledgements
This study would not have been possible without the co-operation of
the five dermatological outpatient centers that participated in
this study. We are very grateful to Joachim Bockhorst, MD, Dülmen;
Rolf Tentrup, MD, Ibbenbüren, Karl-Heinz Vehring, MD, Udo Amann,
MD, Lingen, and Brigitte Wigbels, MD, Gronau. We thank further
Andreas Kern for help with the statistical analysis in Freiburg and
Sarah Schulz and Sabine Stoll for practical support in Münster.
Financial support: none, Conflict of interest: none.
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