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Guidelines for the management of actinic keratoses


European Journal of Dermatology. Volume 16, Number 6, 599-606, November-December 2006, European Dermatology Forum

DOI : 10.1684/ejd.2006.0017


Author(s) : Eggert Stockfleth, Helmut Kerl , Department of Dermatology, Venerology and Allergology, Charité Campus Mitte,Universität Berlin Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin, Germany.

ARTICLE

Auteur(s) : Eggert Stockfleth, Helmut Kerl

Department of Dermatology, Venerology and Allergology, Charité Campus Mitte,Universität Berlin Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin, Germany

These guidelines have been accepted by the UEMS and should facilitate the management of actinic keratoses Europe-wide. They are intended to provide an important resource for improving the quality of care.These guidelines attempt to cover clinical practice across Europe and should be regarded as a set of suggestions for care delivery.The guidelines have also been published on the website of the EDF (www.euroderm.org), where periodical updates will be made. The copyright of these guidelines remains at the EDF.Chairman of EDF Guideline Committee:Prof. Dr. Wolfram Sterry, Berlin (Germany)Subcommittee Members:Prof. Dr. Eggert Stockfleth, Berlin (Germany)Prof. Dr. Helmut Kerl, Graz (Austria)Prof. Dr. Lasse R. Braathen, Bern (Switzerland)Dr. Rino Cerio, London (UK)Prof. Dr. Bernard Cribier, Strasbourg (France)Prof. Dr. Carlos Ferrándiz Foraster, Badalona (Spain)Prof. Dr. Alberto Giannetti, Modena (Italy)Prof. Dr. Laios Kemény, Szeged (Hungary)Prof. Dr. Bernt Lindelöf, Stockholm (Sweden)Prof. Dr. Martino Neumann, Rotterdam (The Netherlands)Prof. Dr. Wolfram Sterry, Berlin (Germany)Members of EDF Guideline Committee:Prof. Dr. Werner Aberer, Graz (Austria)Prof. Dr. Martine Bagot, Créteil (France)Prof. Dr. Lasse Braathen, Bern (Switzerland)Prof. Dr. Sergio Chimenti, Rome (Italy)Prof. Dr. José Luis Diaz-Perez, Bilbao (Spain)Prof. Dr. Vladimir Hegyi, Bratislava (Slovak Republic)Prof. Dr. Lajos Kemény, Szeged (Hungary)Prof. Dr. Gillian Murphy, Dublin (Ireland)Prof. Dr. Martino Neumann, Rotterdam (The Netherlands)Prof. Dr. Tony Ormerod, Aberdeen (UK)Prof. Dr. Annamari Ranki, Helsinki (Finland)Prof. Dr. Fenella Wojnarowska, Oxford (UK)List of conflicts of interest:Prof. Dr. Helmut Kerl, Graz (Austria) is a consultant for 3M PharmaceuticalsProf. Dr. Wolfram Sterry, Berlin (Germany) is a consultant for 3M PharmaceuticalsProf. Dr. Bernard Cribier, Strasbourg (France) is a speaker of symposia sponsored by ShireProf. Dr. Eggert Stockfleth, Berlin (Germany) is a speaker for 3M Pharmaceuticals, Shire, Galderma

Guidelines for the management of actinic keratoses

These guidelines are based on a previous document prepared by E. Stockfleth et al. prepared for the German “Arbeitsgemeinschaft Dermatologische Onkologie – Deutsche Krebsgesellschaft” and have been modified by the Guidelines Committee of the European Dermatology Forum. They reflect the data available at the time the report was written. Future studies may require alterations of the conclusions or recommendations in this report.

The level of evidence of published studies is based on the criteria from Sackett (http://www.cebm.net/levels_of_evidence.asp).

Disclaimer

These guidelines for the management of actinic keratoses (AK) have been prepared by the AK subcommittee of the Guidelines Committee of the European Dermatology Forum. They represent an evidence-based guidance for treatment for actinic keratoses, with identification of the level of evidence available at the time of preparation, and contain a brief overview of epidemiological aspects and clinical management of patients with AK.

A variety of different and well-accepted therapeutic modalities are used in the management of AK. These guidelines aim to aid in the selection of the most appropriate treatment option for individual patients.

Definition and pathogenesis

Actinic keratoses (AKs) are defined as keratotic macules, papules or plaques with superficial scale on a red base, occurring on areas of extensive damage through sunlight. They should be classified as in situ squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) [1, 2]. Histopathologically an intraepidermal proliferation of atypical keratinocytes can be observed.

AKs are mainly caused by non-ionising radiation, especially through ultraviolet light associated with chronic sun exposure. While UV-A (320-400 nm) induced photooxidative stress indirectly induces characteristic DNA mutations, the spectrum of UV-B (290-320 nm) irradiation directly results in the formation of cyclobutane (thymin) dimer formation and C → T or CC → TT transitions in DNA and RNA. In the absence of appropriate repair mechanisms, these DNA changes represent the initiation of keratinocyte mutations which can progress into the development of AKs [3]. Other factors like repeated iatrogenic exposure to UV-A with or without combination with psoralenes, X-rays or radioisotopes are known to induce AKs. Human papilloma-viruses (HPV) play a role as co-carcinogen in the ethiopathogenesis of AKs [4, 5]. The association between cutaneous HPV types and skin carcinogenesis is well known since 1978 in patients with epidermodysplasia verruciformis [6]. In AKs often cutaneous HPV types and rarely genital types have been detected [7]. Tumour-inducing effects have been also be shown for viral E6 protein of cutaneous HPVs. E6 interacts with pro-apoptotic Bak-protein and therefore inhibits apoptosis [8, 9]. Other factors include the skin phototype of the individual, genetic factors, chronic immunosuppression, history of arsenic exposure.

AKs can occur as a single lesion or affect an entire field such as sun exposed areas on the forehead or the back of the hand (syn. field cancerisation) [10]. Cancer-related molecular alterations are found in both AK and SCC. This genetic link supports the malignant nature of AKs from their inception. The transformed keratinocytes show a high mutation rate of the tumour-suppressor gene p53 and expression of telomerase [11, 12]. Additionally, similar chromosomal aberrations have been described for invasive SCC typical and AK [13].

Epidemiology

Epidemiological data show a high occurrence rate of AKs in populations with skin phototype I-III and an increase of AKs in the last decades, worldwide. Regions with higher UV exposure have a higher prevalence of AKs. In Europe a prevalence of 15% in men and 6% in women has been documented in a recent report from the U.K. Over the age of 70 years, 34% of males and 18% of females were found to have AKs [14]. The USA show prevalences between 11-26% [15], and in Australia (Queensland) a very high prevalence of AKs (55% of men between 30-70 years showed AKs, as opposed to 37% of women) has been reported [16].

In addition to sex, gender and age, other risk factors are known. Geographical factors such as altitude and latitude, increased vacational and recreational sun exposure, a history of severe sunburns in childhood, genetic disorders (xeroderma pigmentosum), and immunodeficiency contribute to the development of actinic keratoses. Clinically, the affected individual often presents with the characteristic signs of dermatoheliosis such as freckles, solar lentigines and rhytides. High-risk-AKs occur mainly in immunosuppressed patients [17]. Organ-transplanted patients have a 250 fold higher risk of developing AKs and a 100 fold higher risk of developing invasive SCCs [18, 19]. While about 40% of immunosuppressed patients develop an invasive SCC only approximately 10% (6-16%) of immunocompetent patients with AKs show this progression [20, 18].

In conclusion, the incidence of AKs is increasing such that millions of patients are affected worldwide, making actinic keratoses the most frequent carcinoma in situ in man.

Clinical aspects

Typical AKs are skin-coloured to reddish-brown scaly macules, papules or plaques occurring in areas of chronic sun exposure, especially on the face, forehead, scalp, ears, neck, décolleté, arms, dorsum of the hands, and lower lips.

Lesions size ranges from a few millimetres up to 2 centimetres or more in diameter. AKs rarely develop as solitary lesions; in fact multiple lesions are commonly present (field cancerisation).

A clinical classification is illustrated in table 1( Table 1 ).

No distinct clinical boundaries exist between AKs and SCC. It has been reported that before AKs progress to invasive SCC, they may become inflamed and painful [21].

Diagnosis of AKs is based upon the typical clinical aspects.

Histological confirmation is necessary, when clinical doubts exist or when special forms of treatment are considered. A biopsy which includes the dermis is required if deeper involvement needs to be excluded.

Dermoscopy can be helpful in the differential diagnosis of pigmented actinic keratosis vs. lentigo maligna melanoma and superficial and/or pigemented basal-cell carcinoma.

Other techniques, including confocal scanning laser microscopy, have been utilised in serial clinical investigations [22].
Table 1 Clinical classification*

- keratotic

- atrophic

- cornu cutaneum

- verrucous

- pigmented

- lichenoid

Histopathology

The histological criteria of AKs are summarized in table 2( Table 2 ).

The lichenoid subtype of AK is accompanied by dense bandlike infiltrates of lymphocytes in the stratum papillare. Acantholytic dyskeratotic cells above suprabasal clefts are found in acantholytic AKs. The degree of intraepidermal involvement by keratinocytic atypia is graded as mild (AK I), moderate (AK II) or severe (AK III).

The classification of AKs takes into consideration that AK is an early stage of cancer and that both AKs and SCC are stages in the evolution of a continuous process characterised by the proliferation of atypical keratinocytes.

On histopathologic grounds alone, AK and SCC are indistinguishable in the epidermal layer, and AKs fulfill all criteria for SCC. Both contain atypical keratinocytes with loss of polarity, nuclear pleomorphism, disordered maturation, and increased numbers of mitotic figures [1]. AK and SCC are frequently contiguous with one another. It is important to emphasize that in a study of > 1000 SCC on sun-damaged skin nearly 100% of these lesions contained histopathologic changes of AK at the periphery [23].
Table 2 Histopathological features

Early lesions

- Focally atypical keratinocytes (large pleomorphic nuclei, hyperchromatic nuclei) in the basal layer of the epidermis

- Crowding of nuclei

- Alternation of ortho- and parakeratosis

- Actinic elastosis

Fully developed lesions

- Hyperplasia (or sometimes atrophy) of the epidermis

- Rete ridges arranged in buds or columns

- Alternation of ortho- and parakeratosis

- Neoplastic cells spare both acrosyringia and acrotrichia

- Atypical epidermal keratinocytes involve mostly the lower half of the epidermis. Sometimes with focal involvement of the entire thickness of the epidermis

- Atypical keratinocytes extend along adnexal epithelia

- Dyskeratotic cells and mitotic figures

- Actinic elastosis

- Lymphocytic infiltrate of variable density

Treatment options

Overview

It is impossible to predict which AK will become thicker or more invasive with a potential for destructive growth and risk for metastases, i.e. develop into metastatic squamous cell carcinomas. AKs should therefore be treated.

In the decision which therapy should be chosen the following factors play a major role: duration and course of lesions, localisation and extent of disease, solitary or multiple AKs, age, and co-morbidity, mental condition and compliance of the patient, pre-existing (skin) cancer and as well as the presence of other risk factors (especially immuno-suppression).

When considering treatment options for actinic keratoses, there is a great variety of accepted methods. When using non-surgical treatment modalities an exemplary probe biopsy for histological diagnosis may be indicated before therapy.

The following treatment options are not listed in a ranked order.

Surgical excision, dermabrasion and curettage

Excision of AKs is not routinely used and only chosen if invasive SCC is suspected or recurrent lesions are present.

Shave excision is frequently used for AK. Sutures are not necessary and a histologic diagnosis can be provided [24].

Similarly, curettage may be used alone or in conjunction with electro-surgery or cryotherapy with excellent cure rates [25]. Curettage may also be combined with zinc chloride as Schreus-method which is also a very effective method for the treatment of field cancerisation [26].

Dermabrasion is especially useful for larger areas of AK on the scalp [27].

All these methods require local anesthesia and may leave epidermal changes or scarring.

Cryotherapy

Cryotherapy is the most common treatment for AKs, especially for the management of multiple AKs [25, 28, 29]. Cryotherapy is available in techniques using liquid nitrogen or as spray or contact-cryotherapy. Field cancerisation, which describes a chronically sun-damaged area can be treated by cryo-peeling [30]. Cryotherapy is not standardised concerning frequency, duration, intensity and definitive specification of temperature in the frozen tissue. As a non-specific technique, cryotherapy destroys atypical, but also normal cells by disruption and separation of the epidermis from the dermis. Pain, redness, edema and blistering can occur during and after treatment. Scarring and hypo- or hyperpigmentation is commonly observed.

Though cryotherapy is often used, controlled studies are missing. Complete responses differ from 75% to 98% ([31] - level of evidence 2b, [32] - level of evidence 3a); the recurrence rates of AKs have been estimated from 1.2% to 12% within a 1-year follow up period ([30] - level of evidence 3a, [33] - level of evidence 3b].

Chemical peeling

Chemical peeling is a destructive method through the application of caustic agents like trichloroacetic acid, alpha-hydroxy acids, zinc-chloride or phenolic acid. Chemical peeling can be a useful alternative for treatment of extensive facial AK ([34] - level of evidence 2c). The efficacy of chemical peelings depends on the agent used and is quoted to be round about 75%; recurrence rates are from 25-35% within one year after therapy. Side effects of chemical peelings include pain, inflammation, pigmentary alterations, and the risk of scarring ([35] - level of evidence 2c, [36, 37] - level of evidence 3b).

Laser

Near infrared laser systems like carbon dioxide (CO2) or Erbium-YAG lasers are indicated in special cases for AKs. Both are ablative laser systems and can be used for single lesions as well as full face resurfacing. Full face laser resurfacing provides long-term effective prophylaxis against AKs and may reduce the incidence of AKs related SCC [38]. Adverse events are pain, inflammation, pigmentary changes and scarring as well as delayed healing and postinflammatory erythema. Although complete remission is documented from 90 to 91% recurrence rates for single lesions range from 10 to 15% within 3 to 6 months ([39] - level of evidence 3b, [40]). Disappointing results reported in earlier literature maybe related to technical aspects, as the outcomes of full face resurfacing are strongly user dependent. [41]. The expert opinion is that in skilled hands there is a place for CO2/Erbium-YAG laser in the management for AKs and the treatment of actinic cheilitis.

Radiotherapy

The treatment of AKs with X-rays is considered obsolete due to the co-carcinogenic effect of X-rays.

Photodynamic therapy

Topical photodynamic therapy (PDT) acts through the selective destruction of atypical keratinocytes (depth of penetration 3-4 mm) through light activation of a photosensitiser in the presence of oxygen. The neoplastic cells accumulate more photosensitiser than normal cells. The photosensitiser generates reactive oxygen species upon illumination, which results in selective photochemical and photothermal effects on the irradiated tissue. The most commonly used precursors of protoporphyrin IX are 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA) and its derivatives like the new lipophilic agent methyl aminolevulinate (MAL). MAL-PDT is applied as a cream under occlusion for 3 hours before illumination with high intensity red light. For Europe, the European Medical Evaluation Agency (EMEA) labelled MAL as indication for AK. The clinical experience in AK patients receiving MAL-PDT shows complete response rate of 70-78% after a single treatment session and 90% after two treatment sessions one week apart. Negative effects of PDT are local pain, risk of photosensitivity (mainly for ALA) and time delay between application of cream and treatment. Photodynamic therapy in comparison to cryotherapy shows significantly better cosmetic results – (evaluation by patients and doctors) ([31] - level of evidence 2b, [42] - level of evidence 2b, [43, 44] - level of evidence 2b[17]). Advantages of PDT include the selective absorption and treatment of sub-clinical lesions and the flourescence of the photosensitiser can be visualised using Wood’s light before the initiation of therapy [45]. On the other hand, the costs of treatment are considerably higher compared to cryotherapy.

Imiquimod

Imiquimod 5%, a member of a novel class of immune response modifiers (IRMs), is a toll-like receptor (TLR) 7-agonist and stimulates the immune response by induction, synthesis and release of cytokines. These cytokines increase the cellular immunity. Therefore it has an indirect antiviral and anti-tumoral potency [46, 47]. Topically applied imiquimod causes a local skin reaction, including erythema, itching, and burning, that is generally mild to moderate in intensity – also fever can occur (especially in larger treated areas and/or mucosal application). Apart from the capability of imiquimod to ‘light-up’ sub-clinical AKs, imiquimod is effective and safe in patients with AKs. Response rates show complete remission in 84%; a recurrence rate of 10% within 1-year follow up and 20% within 2-years follow up ([48] - level of evidence 2b,[49] - level of evidence 2b). A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in 436 patients with actinic keratoses showed a complete resolution of all lesions in 45.1% (vs. 3.2% placebo) and a partial reduction of actinic keratoses in 59.1% (vs. 11.8% placebo) after a treatment period of 16 weeks (twice per week) [Lebwohl et al. 2004 - level of evidence 2b]. A label for the indication of AK through the EMEA is in process. Imiquimod is labelled for the indication of superficial basal cell carcinoma in the USA, Australia and Europe.

Topical 5-fluorouracil

5-fluorouracil (5-FU) is a topical chemotherapeutic antimetabolite that destroys clinical foci via interference with DNA and RNA by blocking the methylation reaction of deoxyuridylic acid to thymidylic acid. Hereby 5-FU interferes with the synthesis of DNA and, to a lesser extent, inhibits the formation of RNA. 5-FU can be used for the treatment of multiple lesions and is applied twice a day (2-4 weeks). These effects may cause life-risk complications if dihydropyrimidine-dehydrogenase-deficency exists [50]. Topical 5-FU can results in severe dermatitis with wound infections, pruritus, pain and ulceration with scarring and the application is of limited help in the therapy of extensive AKs. A reduction of severe side effects can be realised by using intermittent “pulse” 5-FU therapy which is a less intensive way of employing 5-FU and may be of value in patients unwilling to accept the erosions and discomfort that accompany the traditional course of daily 5-FU applications ([51] - level of evidence 3b). For localised disease, clearance rates of approximately 50% and recurrence rates up to 55% have been reported with 5-FU ([35, 52] - level of evidence 2c, [53] - level of evidence 3b). Meanwhile, new formulations with different concentrations and galenics of 5-FU are under clinical investigations ([54] - level of evidence 3a, [53] - level of evidence 3b, [55] - level of evidence 2c, [56]).

Retinoids

Retinaldehyde is a natural derivative of vitamin A; it has effects similar to retinoic acid [57]. Besides counteracting the UV-induced vitamin A deficiency of the epidermis, topical retinaldehyde may have an antioxidant effect [58, 59] and decreases the number of sunburn cells. A placebo-controlled randomised study documents that systemic administered etretinate reduces AKs in 85% ([60] - level of evidence 2b). Some publications show that the epidemiological characteristics of AKs were not modified by the application of retinaldehyde and that retinaldehyde has no prophylactic effects on the development of AKs ([61] - level of evidence 3a, [62] - level of evidence 3a). Side effects of topically applied retinoids are increased sensitivity to sunlight, erythema, erosions, pruritus and pain.

Retinoids can also be administered orally especially in patients who develop large numbers of skin cancers [63]. Systemic therapy can be considered for high risk patients - such as patients with inherited disorders such as xeroderma pigmentosum (abnormal repair of UV-induced DNA damage), nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome (tumour suppressor gene abnormality) or in after organ-transplant recipients with chronic immunosuppression ([64, 65] - level of evidence 3a). The use of retinoids for the treatment of AKs is currently an off-label use.

Diclofenac in hyaluronic acid gel

Within the last years antineoplastic properties of selective inhibitors of cyclo-oxygenase 2 (COX-2 have increasingly been investigated). These new agents inhibit prostaglandin E2 synthesis (PGE2) which is known to suppress the production of immune-regulatory lymphocytes, T-and B-cell proliferation and the cytotoxic activity of natural killer cells. Furthermore activation of COX-2 has implications for tumour angiogenesis through up-regulation of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), which is a potent angiogenic factor required for tumor growth and metastases [66]. Apart from its affinity to the inducible COX-2, NSAIDs have been demonstrated to activate peroxisome proliferator-activated-receptor-gamma (PPAR-gamma) which decreases cancer cell proliferation. Topical diclofenac is applied in hyaluronic acid (HA). Several randomised, double blind, HA gel vehicle-controlled clinical studies have evaluated the efficacy of topical diclofenac HA gel in patients with AK. The 30-day interval between the end of treatment and the evaluation of efficacy was due to earlier findings stating a significant advantage for diclofenac HA gel over placebo, when efficacy was evaluated 4 weeks after the end of treatment. The product significantly reduced lesions when applied for 60 or 90 days bid. A double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled multicenter study showed responding rates of 79% (verum group) versus 45% in the placebo group; a complete healing was seen in 50% (verum group) versus 20% in the control group (p < 0.001%) ([67] - level of evidence 2b]). Other controlled studies showed similar effects ([68] - level of evidence 2b, [69] - level of evidence 2b). Adverse effects were skin related and mild to moderate in severity (pruritus, erythema, dry skin, hyp- and paraesthesia). Systemic bioavailability of diclofenac was demonstrated to be considerably lower after topical application than after systemic administration and the drug demonstrated a good safety profile.

Prevention

Prevention of AKs is an important part in AK-management [70, 71]. Education of patients (UV-protection, self-examination, and detection of early lesions) is particularly important. AK is an ongoing disease that requires frequent follow-up (half-yearly to yearly) and long-term management.

Summary of recommendations

It has to be declared that the physician who cares about the patient has always to keep in mind the inidividual needs of the patient. The physician has to respect the individuality of the patient and has to see the guideline as recommendation and supporting device for therapeutical strategies and efforts.

Guideline development standard operating Procedure of EDF (table 3)

( Table 3 )Appendix (table 4( Table 4 ))
Table 3 Guideline development standard operating Procedure of EDF

Step

Responsible

Task

Months duration

1

EDF Guidelines Committee (EDF-GC)

Decision of topic of specific guideline

2

EDF Guidelines Committee

Foundation of subcommittee for specific guidelines, nomination of EDF members (50%)

at EDF Meeting

3

EDF Guidelines Committee

Ask EADV to send in 25% of members for the subcommittee

2

4

EDF Guidelines Subcommittee (EDF-GSubC)

Identify all existing guidelines for the specific guideline (active process: literature survey plus contact to Dermatological Societies)

1

5

EDF Guidelines Subcommittee

Select the guidelines with highest quality. Criteria for selection:

1

1. Availability of strength of evidence

2. Availability of strength of recommendation

3. Evidence of mechanics of literature review

6

EDF Guidelines Subcommittee

Identification/nomination of additional 50% EDF members for the EDF-GSubC from amongst the authors of the best guidelines

0.5

7

EDF Guidelines Subcommittee

Nomination of chairperson for EDF-GSubC from the GSubC members

0.5

8

Chairperson of Subcommittee

Consider involvement of other disciplines and patients´ organisations

1

9

EDF Guidelines Subcommittee

Meet

6

1. to decide the author of the first draft and to discuss the present guidelines, their strengths and weaknesses

2. 6 months later to discuss the draft (consensus conference)

10

Chairperson

Circulate the guideline draft to national dermatological societies for comments

2

11

Guidelines Subcommittee

Circulate final version for approval among members of the guideline subcommittee

1

12

Chairperson of Subcommittee

Deliver final version for comments to

2

1. EDF guideline chairperson

2. EADV Board

3. UEMS

13

EDF Guidelines Committee

Review and comment guideline

1

14

EDF Guidelines Committee chairperson

Send guideline for official approval to UEMS (formal approval)

1

15

EDF secretary

Distribute guideline for in advance information to EDF members and National Dermatological Societies

1

16

EDF

Publication

6

1. on EDF homepage

2. in European Journal of Dermatology and Journal of Deutsche Dermatologische Gesellschaft

3. If publication in other national journals is requested by the respective society, this will be encouraged by the EDF


Table 4 

Level

Therapy/Prevention, Aetiology/Harm

Prognosis

Diagnosis

Differential diagnosis/symptom prevalence study

Economic and decision analyses

1a

SR (with homogeneity) of RCTs

SR (with homogeneity) of inception cohort studies; CDR validated in different populations

SR (with homogeneity) of Level 1 diagnostic studies; CDR with 1b studies from different clinical centres

SR (with homogeneity) of prospective cohort studies

SR (with homogeneity) of Level 1 economic studies

1b

Individual RCT (with narrow Confidence Interval)

Individual inception cohort study with ≥ 80% follow-up; CDR validated in a single population

Validating cohort study with good reference standards; or CDR tested within one clinical centre

Prospective cohort study with good follow-up

Analysis based on clinically sensible costs or alternatives; systematic review(s) of the evidence; and including multi-way sensitivity analyses

1c

All or none

All or none case-series

Absolute SpPins and SnNouts

All or none case-series

Absolute better-value or worse-value analyses

2a

SR (with homogeneity) of cohort studies

SR (with homogeneity) of either retrospective cohort studies or untreated control groups in RCTs

SR (with homogeneity) of Level >2 diagnostic studies

SR (with homogeneity) of 2b and better studies

SR (with homogeneity) of Level >2 economic studies

2b

Individual cohort study (including low quality RCT; e.g., < 80% follow-up)

Retrospective cohort study or follow-up of untreated control patients in an RCT; Derivation of CDR or validated on split-sample only

Exploratory cohort study with good reference standards; CDR after derivation, or validated only on split-sample or databases

Retrospective cohort study, or poor follow-up

Analysis based on clinically sensible costs or alternatives; limited review(s) of the evidence, or single studies; and including multi-way sensitivity analyses

2c

“Outcomes” Research; Ecological studies

“Outcomes” Research

Ecological studies

Audit or outcomes research

3a

SR (with homogeneity) of case-control studies

SR (with homogeneity) of 3b and better studies

SR (with homogeneity) of 3b and better studies

SR (with homogeneity) of 3b and better studies

3b

Individual Case-Control Study

Non-consecutive study; or without consistently applied reference standards

Non-consecutive cohort study, or very limited population

Analysis based on limited alternatives or costs, poor quality estimates of data, but including sensitivity analyses incorporating clinically sensible variations.

4

Case-series (and poor quality cohort and case-control studies)

Case-series (and poor quality prognostic cohort studies)

Case-control study, poor or non-independent reference standard

Case-series or superseded reference standards

Analysis with no sensitivity analysis

5

Expert opinion without explicit critical appraisal, or based on physiology, bench research or “first principles”

Expert opinion without explicit critical appraisal, or based on physiology, bench research or “first principles”

Expert opinion without explicit critical appraisal, or based on physiology, bench research or “first principles”

Expert opinion without explicit critical appraisal, or based on physiology, bench research or “first principles”

Expert opinion without explicit critical appraisal, or based on economic theory or “first principles”

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