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Modeling the distribution of Mycobacterium ulcerans infection in Lalo district, Benin Volume 19, issue 1, January-February 2020

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Tables

Authors
1 Centre inter-facultaire de recherche en environnement pour le développement durable
Université d’Abomey-Calavi
01 BP 256 Cotonou
Bénin
2 Institut régional de santé publique
BP 384 Ouidah
Bénin
3 Laboratoire de botanique forestière
École supérieure des sciences agricoles et de la vie
Université de Tokyo
1-1-1, Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8657
Japon
4 Centre de dépistage et de traitement de l’ulcère de Buruli de Lalo
05 BP 2572 Cotonou
Bénin
5 Laboratoire de biogéographie et d’expertise environnementale
Faculté des sciences humaines et sociales
Université d’Abomey-Calavi
01 BP 526 Cotonou
Bénin
* Tirés à part

Climate change leads to modifications in the environment that affect the geographical distribution of living organisms. Mycobacterium ulcerans infection or Buruli ulcer (BU) is a chronic necrotizing skin disease caused by an environmental mycobacteria (M. ulcerans). This disease often occurs in tropical and subtropical regions where environmental conditions favor this pathogen's development. A change in the environment may affect the geographical distribution of this disease in endemic areas. The objective of our work is to study the influence of climate change on the geographical distribution of BU in the Lalo district of Benin. Using the maximum entropy method, we modeled the probable geographical distribution of this disease under current and future climatic conditions in Lalo, one of the most endemic districts in Benin. We used bioclimatic variables and occurrence points of the disease. The results showed that the distribution of BU is likely to decrease by about 80% in this district in the future. The results of our model are in line with national epidemiological data that show a decrease in new BU cases from 1203 in 2007 to 267 in 2017.