|
|
 |
 |
| |
 Printable version |
Micro-scenarios and their construction. The example of "Animal feeding models"
in the future study of "The competitiveness of oilseed in the future" |
Oléagineux, Corps Gras, Lipides. Volume 9, Number 5, 352-61, Septembre - Octobre 2002, Dossier : Prospective et recherche agronomique
|
 Résumé
Article gratuit
|
Author(s) : Clementina SEBILLOTTE |
Summary : This article shows how to use the SYSPAHMM (DADP-INRA) foresight methodology to construct micro-scenarios of possible futures based on the Cetiom future study: "The competitiveness of oilseed in the future". The author analyses step by step how to build micro-scenarios of possible futures for animal feeding models using three different protein sources (soybean, industrial amino-acids, European feeding supplies). A list of hypotheses for the future has been elaborated taking into account static and dynamic descriptions of the oilseed system. Clusters of the most closely related hypotheses were obtained by mathematical processing. For each cluster, the hypothesis (or hypotheses) that was considered to be the motor that gives sense to the micro-scenario is chosen. Afterwards, the micro-scenario is described according to a graphic representation of the cluster that takes into account the relationships (direction and + or - sign) among the hypotheses. In this way, each micro-scenario is created according to dynamic relationships among the hypotheses in the cluster instead of the projection of a priori ideas that the forecaster has about the micro-
scenario. |
Keywords : future study, foresight, future prospect, micro-scenario, hypothesis, cluster, animal feeding. |
|
